欧盟安全问题研究所 非洲的未来：展望2025年 9
王晋 历史与变迁——巴勒斯坦内部的派别纷争 46
serik orazgaliyev（哈萨克斯坦） 里海地区管道出口线路的竞争：新的大博弈还是新的丝绸之路? 60
伊戈尔·巴里诺夫（俄罗斯） 乌克兰民族主义：过去、现在和未来 86
冯建勇 民族主义、国家利益与地缘政治之纠葛——1919～1924年外蒙古“二次独立”问题研究 96
马龙闪 当代俄罗斯史学对苏联社会主义的回顾和反思——以普京范本俄罗斯历史教科书的书写为例 121
张宗华 姜艳红 十月革命后俄国贵族在中国的流亡 133
方亮 民粹如何肢解苏联 147
content of issue 79 of the magazine leaders
9 african futures: horizon 2025
46 palestine’s internal strife
60 competition for pipeline export routes in the caspian region: the new great game or the new silk road?
86 ukrainian nationalism: in the past, present and future
96 research on the issue of outer mongolia’s “second independence” between 1919 and 1924
121 reflections on soviet socialism in contemporary russian historiography
133 russian aristocracy’s lives in exile in china after october revolution
147 how was soviet union disintegrated by populism
summary of issue 79 of the magazine leaders
african futures: horizon 2025
there exists, however, no strict path dependency in the challenges identified in this report. understanding causality in mechanistic terms would lead to ill-adapted responses that are highly likely to lay the ground for tomorrow’s problems. the growing youth bulge, for instance, does not inherently or inevitably lead to increased unrest and violence, nor does religious mobilisation necessarily lead to violent extremism.
competition for pipeline export routes in the caspian region: the new great game or the new silk road?
in the case of the caspian energy resources, it has been demonstrated that the energy cooperation was beneficial for both exporters and importers of oil and gas. moreover, the global powers cooperate with each other in numerous joint ventures such as kashagan project in kazakhstan, and the south caucasus pipeline consortium where, for example, iranian and western companies are members. in another set of examples, the u.s. companies collaborated with russia in order to build the cpc pipeline. … the great game concept presupposes that the territories where the game is taking place have little or no impact on the outcome. however, same cannot be said about the nic states, as in many cases, their strategic moves predetermined the dynamics of the processes.
ukrainian nationalism: in the past, present and future
after the collapse of the soviet union, the need for new vectors of identity formation, and ideological disorientation, in the former union republics, stimulated an appeal to the legacy of that historical moment that was, as it were, paused as a result of the emergence of the soviet state. so, in russia this moment was the era of the late empire, in the baltic states - a brief period of interwar independence. in ukraine, again, for certain reasons, no less than one or two similar reference points were identified. so, in 1992, a symbolic transfer of the signs of power from ukraine within the framework of the ussr to its historical opponent, the ukrainian people’s republic, was organized in the modern form. the introduction in ukraine of the national currency (hryvnia), depicting both the princes of kiev and the cossack hetmans, appealed to even earlier times.